Why Newt Gingrich Will Win the South Carolina Primary

Former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich held
center stage at last night’s debate in North Charleston, S.C. (David Goldman/AP)

It's not because he's surging in the polls going into the election. It's not because his performances at two conveniently-timed debates this week were phenomenally well-recevied. It's not because so many South Carolina voters who fancy themselves "conservatives" are yearning for an electable alternative to Mitt Romney. It's not because he was lionized as the target of a beyond-despicable hit by the drive-by media involving one of his ex-wives. It's not because his two daughters' increased presence on the campaign trail and in the press have quelled voters' misgivings about his personal transgressions. It's not because the revelation that Romney did not actually make history by placing first in both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary dispelled the aura of inevitability that had previously surrounded the frontrunner. It's not because of his unique ability to make a regional appeal to voters in a way that his opponents--who aren't from the Southeastern U.S.--can't. It's not because he was able to wrest control of the narrative from the news media, while Romney got knocked off course by the persistent questions about his tax returns.

No...wait...it's all of those things. Newt Gingrich, who led the Republican field by double digits in South Carolina until this month, when he saw his poll numbers crater as they had throughout the country, has come roaring back in the state that has picked the eventual Republican nominee for president in every election since 1980. The question at the front of my mind is not whether he'll win the primary tomorrow, but rather, how big will his margin be? (Actually, it's more like, "Why are you blogging when you have more important and consequential things to do?") My prediction: Gingrich will win tomorrow, and he'll win big. Probably by double digits. It will be a win so big that Romney may not be able to put him away in Florida. It won't be enough to make him the new frontrunner, but it will most likely compel Santorum to call it quits, and it's pretty hard to envision the former Pennsylvania senator throwing his support to anyone but the former Speaker.